Harvesting Reports | Synthesizing Information | Informing Policy
Moderate Protests, Business Disruptions Remain Likely in Georgia
Hundreds of people were injured on 20 June 2019 when protesters clashed with riot police in the Georgian capital Tbilisi. Protests persisted for several weeks, met with intermittent police crackdowns. Though the situation has largely calmed down, moderate protests and business disruptions remain likely through 2019. Impact for non-Russian businesses and visitors is…
Exporting the Kadyrov Model Part III: Beyond Syria
The presence of pro-Moscow Chechen forces in Syria has gathered widespread attention in recent months. What motivates their deployment to the country? What role do they play in Moscow’s wider foreign policy strategy? This new Leksika series will attempt to answer these questions.
New Developments in Russia-South Korea Relations
Recent developments on the Korean Peninsula have raised new questions regarding regional diplomacy. Dhedra Danudoro offers a brief report on the current status of Russian-South Korean relations.
When Donnie Met Vova: What to Make of a Trump-Putin Summit?
Following a controversial NATO Summit, US President Donald Trump is set to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Helsinki. What will the world leaders discuss? How limited are their options? Will domestic opposition hinder any agreements? Leksika investigates.
Are Russo-American Relations at an Impasse?
Russia argues that Western meddling in its self-declared “sphere of influence” left it with no choice but to shore up its defenses leading to the present rivalry between the two powers. To what extent have American policies triggered the rise of a paranoid security class in Russia traditionally hostile to the United States, and…
Ride of the Russkis: The Wagner Group in Syria
The last two weeks have seen the widespread coverage of clashes between U.S.-backed Kurdish forces and Russian private military contractors. As many as 300 Russian nationals fighting with the Wagner PMC (private military company) were reportedly killed in Syria, including by possible US airstrikes. If true, this would constitute the most serious Western-Russian…
From Cyber to Khyber – Russia’s New Footprint in South Asia, Part II
Russia has been rapidly expanding its military and political footprint across South Asia over the past several months. Simultaneously pursuing military exercises with Pakistan and signing bilateral cyber pacts with India, Moscow has found itself as the middle man between two nuclear-armed rivals. But why is this happening now? This series will examine Russia’s relations…
Exporting the Kadyrov Model Part II: Cultural Diplomacy
The presence of pro-Moscow Chechen forces in Syria has gathered widespread attention in recent months. What motivates their deployment to the country? What role do they play in Moscow’s wider foreign policy strategy? This new Leksika series will attempt to answer these questions.
Not in Our Backyard II: Russia’s Secret Fight to Deny the West Influence in the Balkan States
An attempted coup in Montenegro in October 2016 as the country prepared to join NATO prompted accusations of Russian involvement. But how credible are the allegations? In the final part of this series on Russian involvement in the Balkans, Lekisika’s Sean Crowley investigates this incident as well as broader Russian efforts to maintain influence in…
Not in Our Backyard I: Why NATO’s Balkan Presence Upsets Russia
As the tensions between the Russian Federation and the United States in Ukraine and Syria receive the most media attention, the two states are waging a shadow war of political and economic influence and cloak and dagger activities in the Balkans. Part One of this two-part Leksika investigation examines the historical motives for why Russia…
South Ossetia: Increasing Integration with Russia
South Ossetia has recently taken further steps to integrate its armed forces and economy with Russia. What does this mean for the region? Will the uneasy truce with Georgia be strained? Leksika investigates.
Exporting the Kadyrov Model Part I: Setting the Scene
The presence of pro-Moscow Chechen forces in Syria has gathered widespread attention in recent months. What motivates their deployment to the country? What role do they play in Moscow’s wider foreign policy strategy? This new Leksika series will attempt to answer these questions.
U.S.-Philippines Breakup, Russia-Philippines Makeup
Despite the United States’ longstanding relationship with the Philippines, President Rodrigo Duterte appears perfectly willing to seek closer ties with states such as the Russian Federation in light of what the Filipino president views as uncalled for American criticism of his hardline counter-narcotics policies.
Examining the Logic behind Pakistan’s Support for Damascus
Since the start of hostilities in 2011, Pakistan has shown consistent support for the Syrian government of Bashar al-Assad. Despite protests coming from Pakistan’s security partners – Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United States, as well as from domestic Islamist actors, Islamabad has remained persistent in its approach. What can explain this policy? This paper…
The Kuril Islands and An Evolving East Asia
The dispute between Russia and Japan over the southern Kuril Islands represents one of the longest territorial disputes in East Asia. In recent years, Japan and Russia have been attempting to resolve the dispute through bilateral cooperation and economic trade. What are the prospects for success however? What might the implications be for the wider…
Information War or Cyber War? Exploring the Russo-Ukrainian Digital Conflict
Since the collapse of the Yanukovych government in 2014, Ukraine has found itself destabilized, divided, and vulnerable to outside attacks – military or otherwise. Though the annexation of Crimea and subsequent war in south-eastern Ukraine captured international headlines, careful Western observers have also been following the cyber dimension of the conflict with great interest. While…
From Cyber to Khyber – Russia’s New Footprint in South Asia, Part I
Russia has been rapidly expanding its military and political footprint across South Asia over the past several months. Simultaneously pursuing military exercises with Pakistan and signing bilateral cyber pacts with India, Moscow has found itself as the middle man between two nuclear-armed rivals. But why is this happening now? This series will examine Russia’s relations…
Russia and Indonesia: Renewal of Defense Cooperation
After decades of stagnation, Russia and Indonesia have signed a number of new defense agreements. Russia has returned to South East Asia in a dramatic fashion, but why now? What are the implications for the region? Leksika’s new Asia specialist investigates.
Special Report: US-Russia Syria Ceasefire Agreement
US Secretary of State John Kerry has announced that the US and Russia have agreed to terms for a general ceasefire in Syria. Leksika explores the terms of the ceasefire agreement, promises of new US-Russia counterterrorism coordination, and the reactions of various factions active in the conflict. This ongoing report will be revised as new developments…
Moldovan Elections I: Setting the Stage
Moldova’s Presidential elections have once again put democracy in this small Eastern European country to the test. Candidates from outside the political mainstream are making serious progress, and come from both pro-EU and pro-Russian camps. In part one of this new series Leksika will provide an overview of the existing candidates and explain why Moscow…
Beyond Turkey: The Struggle Against the Global Gulen Movement
The failed coup attempt has resulted in a widespread and thorough crackdown in Turkey, providing President Erdogan with an unprecedented opportunity to centralize power. Less publicized however are the similar crackdown attempts against the Gulen movement throughout Eurasia, which has left few in the Caucasus and Central Asia unaffected.
The Tsar and the Sultan II: Verifying Putin’s Claims About Turkey
Despite some recent diplomatic improvements, Russia has consistently been one of the greatest critics of Erdogan’s Turkey and its role in the Syrian War. To what extent can these criticisms be validated? Are the United States and other Western powers starting to distance themselves from Turkey in Syria? Leksika’s Sean Crowley offers an in-depth investigation.
The Tsar and the Sultan I: Examining Russo-Turkish Tensions
Russo-Turkish relations are old and complex. From an imperial rivalry in the 19th century, being Cold War adversaries in the 20th, and to contemporary competition for influence in the Middle East and Caucasus, Moscow and Ankara have long been the main actors in an often volatile borderland between the East and the West. How does this…
Unmanned & Unmerciful: Drone Warfare in Afghanistan and Pakistan
While America’s unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) have played a significant role in shattering the hierarchies of al-Qaeda and the Taliban, they have become rather controversial as they have lead the charge in the War on Terror. How did UAVs “take off” to play a key role on the battlefield, and do they help or hinder…
Speak Softly and Carry a Big Stick II: Russian and U.S. Duplicity in Syria
Turkey’s confrontation with Russia and the ongoing US Presidential election have complicated the already delicate situation in Syria. Where do relations stand now, and what can be expected going forward? What capabilities does Russia still poses in Syria after withdrawing a major portion of their troops? Leksika’s Sean Crowley investigates.
Belarus: A Change in Direction?
Belarus has long been Moscow’s most reliable ally in the former Soviet heartland, but recent developments have led some to wonder if the country may be re-evaluating its stance. Is Belarus drifting further away from Russia? Where do relations stand currently? What progress has there been toward political and economic integration projects between Minsk and…
Speak Softly and Carry a Big Stick: U.S.-Russia Cooperation in Syria
France renewed its war efforts in Syria in the aftermath of the Paris attacks. In so doing, France entered an environment already dominated by the US and Russia. How does this effect the already complicated balance between Washington and Moscow? What role did Paris have in initiating the Russo-American ceasefire agreement? Leksika’s Sean Crowley offers…
Azerbaijan and Georgia – More Gas and Geopolitics in the Caucasus
Georgia continues to position itself to be at the center of a new economic zone connecting Europe to Iran and Central Asia. Recent agreements with Azerbaijan -though largely under reported by Western media – serve to foreshadow more extensive arrangements with other regional players.
Their Land, Their Blood: Blowback From Russia’s Syria Intervention
Russia’s intervention in Syria has captured international headlines for months, but what kind of blowback has Moscow been facing? Leksika’s Sean Crowley investigates, taking an in-depth look at the negative side-effects Russia has faced since launching its Syria campaign, both at home and abroad.
Georgia – Next Stop on the New Silk Road
Recent developments in the Republic of Georgia have largely gone unreported in the Western press. The significant economic, political, and security implications however warrant close attention, as Georgia is positioning itself to be at the center of a new economic order connecting Europe to Iran and Central Asia.
(Not) Behind Enemy Lines VI: Hiding Russia’s War in Ukraine
The all-but-certain involvement of Russian military forces in Eastern Ukraine has caused widespread international criticism. But what about the voices of opposition at home? Leksika’s Sean Crowley investigates, taking a look at how the rising casualty rate is effecting the Russian public’s support for their comrades in the Donbass conflict.
“Highway to the Danger Zone”
Russia’s entry into the Syrian fight has radically changed the country’s battlefield, but exactly what kind of firepower is Moscow bringing? Leksika’s Sean Crowley investigates, providing an in-depth open-source look at Russia’s air campaign in Syria.
One Man’s Terrorist…: The Targets of Russian Airstrikes in Syria
Russia’s direct entry into the Syrian War has been met with widespread controversy. What are Moscow’s strategic aims? How does this benefit Russia in the long-term? Examining the targets of Russian airstrikes in the country can help foreign observers to make better sense of the situation.
Russian National Security Strategy: Solidifying Position in a Changing World
The Russian government released its latest national security strategy in December 2015. A close look at this document provides valuable insight into what the country will seek to accomplish in the foreign policy and security spheres over the coming years.
Turkey Plays the Tatar Card?
Russo-Turkish rivalry, a force which has shaped the formation of the Balkans, the Middle East, and Eurasia for centuries, appears to have returned from a long dormant period.
2015 In Review, And Predictions For 2016
The West’s relationship with Russia remained a dominating question of 2015, and 2016 holds promise for much the same.
Paris’s Aftermath: Confronting Europe’s Terrorist Threat
Counterterrorism in the Middle East is a hotly debated topic, but leaders aren’t recognizing growing extremist activities right next door. Are terrorist organizations gaining ground in Balkan states, and could the West become subject to a domino effect?
Freezing Ukraine: Пан или Пропал
Ukraine’s conflict is falling out of the international spotlight, and is headed for a protracted status similar to that of other frozen conflicts in the region. For now, Russia’s foreign policy strategy appears to be succeeding.
Unity Day: The Decline of Russia’s Far-Right
Signs point to a decline in the prevalence of radical nationalist groups in Russia. What’s behind this developing trend, and is this the beginning of a turning point in society?
(Not) Behind Enemy Lines V: The Next Phase of Russia’s War in Ukraine
Russia’s intervention in Syria is distracting the public’s attention away from Ukraine, but the war for the East rages on. Where is the conflict headed, and what is Russia planning?
In-Brief: Geopolitical Fractures on Digital Earth
Following numerous high-profile attacks, the threat of a cyber attack is taking the world by storm while fracturing security across geopolitical lines. How are digital trends influencing the physical world?
(Not) Behind Enemy Lines IV: Arming Russia’s War in Ukraine
How are Ukrainian Separatist forces able to repel the Ukrainian military? Leksika Analyst Sean Crowley looks at some of the weapons and vehicles being employed on both sides of the conflict.
Going Hungry: Protesting Russia’s Food Ban
Russia’s choice to destroy contraband food items has been met with widespread outcry both at home and abroad. What was the logic behind this move? What larger strategic purpose does it serve?
Kyrgyz Elections: #Шайлоо2015
Kyrgyzstan holds parliamentary elections on the 4th of October in the first test of the country’s new constitution adopted after the 2010 revolution. Despite corruption and voter eligibility scandals, expectations for change remain muted.
In-Depth: Implications for Russia’s Intervention in Syria
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Russia’s military buildup in Syria both caught the West by surprise and elicited a sigh of relief…
In-Brief: Trouble in Tajikistan
Insurgent activity is bringing Tajikistan’s political security into question, raising fears that violence could spread beyond the border. As investors in Tajikistan begin to pay attention to the Central Asian nation, the future of the country looks to be defined by increasing unrest.
Moldova’s Billion Dollar Question
Moldova is facing its largest political protests since the end of the Soviet Union. What is behind it? Who is involved? And what does the future hold for this state on the frontier of Europe?
In-Depth: Examining Russia’s Military Presence in Syria
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Pictures of Russian troops in Syria have brought Russia’s role into the public spotlight.…
Forecast: U.S. Elections To Influence Ukraine Conflict
America’s elections are heating up – and the entire world is watching. How will the race to the top shift the balance of power, and will the situation in Ukraine escalate?
(Not) Behind Enemy Lines III: Leading Russia’s War in Ukraine
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The chaos in eastern Ukraine begs a vital question – who is in charge?…
In-Brief: U.S. Inclusion in Normandy Format Untenable
The Normandy format represents the highest-level European forum dedicated to resolving the crisis in Ukraine. Why has the U.S. not been included, and what would happen if it was?
Dropping Iran Sanctions: Winners and Losers in Eurasia
Changes in Western policy have opened the way for Iran’s re-integration into the global economy, but how will this effect other regional energy producers? Who stands to gain and who stands to loose from the Iran deal?
(Not) Behind Enemy Lines II: Fighting Russia’s War in Ukraine
In Part II of the series, analyst Sean Crowley discusses the historical facts surrounding Russia’s activity in Ukraine including a look at first-hand testimonials, Russian intelligence activity, and the possibility of state-sponsored terrorism tactics.
Missile Diplomacy: Options for INF Compliance
In July 2014, the US State Department announced that Russia was in violation of the 1987 Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty. Russia has denied any violation, and now the US must determine whether to uphold the treaty, even if only unilaterally.
On The Ground: The View From Georgia
Leksika Editor Steve Luber reports from Tbilisi, Georgia, on recent events and the population’s attitudes toward geopolitical circumstances. What are the defining issues, and is Georgia as pro-West as many believe?
EU Impaired by Greek Deal
The Greek Crisis has shown the interests of EU states on both sides of the negotiation table; last week’s narrowly avoided Grexit demystifies the topic with negative implications for the stregnth of the EU as a model at home and abroad.
Utility Bills and Deep Pockets: What #ElectricYerevan Really Means
Analysis of ElectricYerevan from Western and Russian media have largely mischaracterized the movement, but it is straightforward economic reasons that drive protestors’ frustrations and are subsequently subject to geopolitical maneuvering.
Firms’ Profit Potential Outweigh Commitment to Sanctions
Western companies’ return to the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum this year after largely being absent in 2014 raises questions about the commitment to sanctions by profit driven enterprises and the political elite they lobby back home.
(Not) Behind Enemy Lines I: Recruiting for Russia’s War in Ukraine
Part one of a series examining the Russian military’s involvement in Ukraine. How are Russian ‘volunteers’ recruited to fight, what is their role in Ukraine, and how is the operation kept under wraps?
Exclusive Interview: Dr. Steven Bucci
Leksika had the opportunity to sit down with Director of the Douglas and Sarah Allison Center for Foreign Policy and National Security at The Heritage Foundation, Dr. Steven Bucci, and discuss a range of topics from current events, cybersecurity, Russia’s future, and more.
TTIP’s Implications for Moscow: Further Economic Isolation?
The Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership faces controversy over a number of domestic economical implications, but what does Russia stand to lose if the deal goes through? Could Russia find itself even more isolated from the Western community?
EU-NATO Efforts to Counter Hybrid Warfare
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Russia is blending symmetric and asymmetric warfare into an effective strategy against its conventionally…
Macedonia’s Political Crisis Continues After Failed Negotiations
Last week’s negotiations mediated by the EU have failed to find a solution to the political stalemate in Skopje among four main political actors, each has left Brussels in a different position than when going into negotiation room while progress remains elusive.
From Russia with Love: Shock Troop Modernization
Russia’s military is undergoing a rapid modernization, and its growing capacity to strike fast and deep into enemy territory poses an existential threat to international security. What are the current and future capabilities of the Blue and Black Berets, and are they operating under the guise of humanitarian aid?
A Tale of Two Mistrals: Sea Change in France?
France has often been the first EU member to call for the lifting of sanctions against Russia, but now President Hollande is being challenged by the pro-Russian National Front Party and must adjust to a more hardline view. How will this affect negotiations, and how would a 2017 victory for Marine Le Pen affect the…
The Digital Front: Russia and Cyberwarfare
An analysis of cyber warfare and its geopolitical consequences. How will the proliferation of advanced hacking technology affect Russia, and what role does Kaspersky Labs play?
Skopje’s Political Crisis: Post-Escalation Scenarios
Macedonia’s political stability has been undermined by over a year of intractable conflict between the government and the oppositions. Allegations of government corruption has entrenched the opposition while hurting Skopje’s image abroad; meanwhile, the latest violence in Kumanovo expands the crisis to the security sphere and complicates any resolution.
A New Beginning: Moscow and Pyongyang
Russia needs a steadfast ally in the Far East, and North Korea appears to be more than willing to take on the role. With the DPRK’s relationship with China quickly souring and Russia seeking closer ties in the region, the two countries could quickly become politically and economically intertwined.
Struggle in the North I: Moves and Countermoves
The Arctic may be the last frontier, and five countries are seeking advantageous access to what will become an important waterway and source of energy. This series assesses each Arctic country’s claim and strategic maneuvers, first up: Russia.
Ukraine Turns Right: Moves and Countermoves
Within the pro-Maidan portion of Ukrainian society the conflict against Russia has significantly boosted the popularity of the extreme right militant groups and has accompanied the resurrection of WWII-era insurgent and fascist groups in a struggle over history’s place in modern Ukraine.
Critical Issues Facing Russia and the Former Soviet Union: Governance and Corruption
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Systemic corruption has long plagued economic growth and political legitimacy in former Soviet Republics; American Security…
Exclusive Interview: Dr. Altay Goyushov
A visiting Azeri scholar has found some reprieve from Baku’s government and takes a moment to discuss with Leksika the political situation in Azerbaijan, the security dilemma facing the Aliyev regime, and some mistakes made in Western calculus toward the liberal opposition in Azerbaijan and elsewhere.
Poroshenko vs. Kolomoisky: Moves and Countermoves
The dismissal of Dnipropetrovsk governor Ihor Kolomoisky last week is a concerning indicator of growing disagreement between Poroshenko and Ukraine’s powerful oligarchs as Poroshenko attempts to limit corruption and preserve state and regional unity.
Putin’s Hot Air: Russia’s Nuclear Posturing
Russia’s bold nuclear diplomacy has piqued the media’s interest, but would Putin be willing to act on his words? How will this affect US-Russian relations?
Geoeconomics and German-Russian Relations
Germany is often viewed as basing its foreign policy on amoral, calculated assumptions. In a special review of Germany, Russia, and the Rise of Geo-Economics a new paradigm in a globalized world is analyzed.
In Brief: Argentina, Russia Agree to Military Cooperation
Argentina and Russia agreed to increased military cooperation in Moscow last week; the move represents yet another option for Moscow as it seeks influence in Latin America. President Kirchner, meanwhile, is using such moves to support nationalist rhetoric aimed at minimizing domestic opposition.
Religious Overtones and the Ukraine Conflict
The multitude of religious sects occupying Ukraine are central to today’s dividing lines: the spiritual role of religion in the region however remains overshadowed by the propaganda sold by all parties to the conflict seeking to associate the present political circumstances to a holy war.
The Baltic’s Contingency: Moves and Countermoves
The conflict in Ukraine is proving, yet again, that ethnic cleavages are liable to break apart otherwise stable countries; with their own disenfranchised Russian population the Baltic states are simultaneously moving to secure their sovereignty at the expense of inter-ethnic unity.
EEU II: Astana’s Russian Oil Ban
Kazakhstan’s 6 March ban on Russian crude and refined oil imports points to inherent flaws in the EEU- economic security guarantees on strategic industries encourage exception clauses in the FTA while similar trade profiles hinder inter-EEU economic development and specialization.
Power Struggle for Kiev: Moves and Countermoves
Until now, volunteer battalions have been a key component of Kiev’s strategy to recapture eastern Ukraine. They have largely complied with central government requirements regarding the ceasefire, but developing fractures and extreme nationalism among several groups threaten state cohesion.
In Focus: Weapons Withdrawal in Ukraine
Fighting continued well past the start of the ceasefire agreed upon in Minsk II. However, the real test to building a lasting peace and negotiated settlement is the withdrawal of heavy weapons from the front lines; violations on this issue are the main indicator of a Minsk II failure and will precipitate a resumption of…
Dnipro Battalion: Moves and Countermoves
One of approximately 40 volunteer battalions under Ukraine’s Ministry of Internal Affairs, the Dnipro Battalion’s base in Dnipropetrovsk Obslast pits it directly against separatists, but the battalion’s benefactor, oligarch Ihor Kolomoyskyi, and the fighters conduct jeapordize the chance of support from the West.
Azerbaijan’s Limited Options
Azerbaijan has sought to court Western states over the last two decades and secure their support in its frozen conflict with Armenia over Nagorno-Karabakh, but a worsening human rights track record and distractions elsewhere have encouraged Washington and European capitals to disengage.
Russian Gains Over Failed US-India Nuclear Agreement
Obama failed to secure a deal with India on nuclear power plant exports over Delhi’s stringent liability laws; US firms are unable to compete then with more affordable Russian designs that have benefit from Russian state liability guarantees as well.
EEU I: Overflight
Part I in an ongoing series assessing the strengths, weaknesses, and capabilities of the latest post-Soviet integration effort between Russia and CIS states. What is the EEU, the motives behind its creation, and initial capabilities?
Check Mate: Gaming Minsk
Lukashenko has reaped the benefit of being the mediator between a recalcitrant Russia, a war-torn Ukraine, and infuriated West, but Minsk’s role is a factor of it’s subordinate position vis-a-vis Moscow and game theory provides insight into the relationship.
Closing the Door on Minsk II
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On 15 February, a follow-up ceasefire to September’s failed accords was announced in Minsk. However, similar stipulations…
Moscow’s Mediterranean: Moves and Countermoves
The slip that Russia may be seeking a naval base in Cyprus caused an uproar in the EU but is unsurprising considering the Russian Navy’s 2020 vision strategy; coupled with the wars in nearby Ukraine and Syria, the Greek debt crisis, and the “Turkish Stream” pipeline, Russia’s hand in the Eastern Mediterranean is on the up.
Opening Minsk Amid a Closing Door on Peace
Today’s Minsk negotiations between Russia, Ukraine, Germany, and France are a last ditch attempt at a brokered ceasefire before the conflict’s stakes are raised by the United States’ prospective arming of Kiev; is this a repeat of the failed accords in September or a genuine effort to marginalize the fighting?
German Parties’ Cohesion Divided Over Ukraine
While Merkel and the Christian Democrats have taken a harsh line against Russia’s policy in Ukraine, cracks are forming in the party consensus amid increasing popular support for Eurosceptic platforms and a conciliatory approach to Russia.
Russia’s Aegean Route Out of Sanctions
Syriza’s vehement anti-austerity platform is troublesome enough for Brussels, but the speculative partnership with Moscow on a Greek debt bailout takes it further: it shows how much Putin will pay for friends in Europe, access to capital markets, and the removal of sanctions.
Between Ukraine, Georgia: Moves and Countermoves
Faced with the same Moscow-dictated security landscape, both Kiev and Tbilisi face similar long-term foreign policy challenges. Several years after its own Russian-led invasion, Georgia illustrates that commiseration and mutual aid cannot change the situation without domestic reform as support.
Moscow and Beijing Compete for Argentina Economy
With yet another debt default, an economic crisis, and limited access to foreign investment, Buenos Aires is looking to Moscow and Beijing to fill the gap; major projects have already been awarded to China and Russia, but can Russia compete with its own ailing economy?
Reconsidering Sanctions and Shaping Russian Strategy in East Asia
Japan’s Western-aligned sanctions against Russia have forced Moscow to embrace Beijing on its terms, but can a radical readjustment of policy guide Russia to a more balanced Asia Pacific strategy and aid its own Far East development?
Pro-Russian Militants: Moves and Countermoves
The allegiances in fractured Chechnya both for and against Moscow have had a resounding influence on the structure and composition of separatist volunteers in eastern Ukraine that, while unofficial, are well aligned with the Kadyrov government in Grozny and counter anti-Russian Chechens supporting Kiev.
The Great Game in the Balkans
Tensions between Russia and the West have precipitated the return of great power politics in the strategically important Balkan Peninsula; while Russia’s “charm offensive” has been met by similar countermeasures from Brussels and Berlin, the region’s fragile security balance remains uncertain.
Eye of the Storm: Georgia’s Renewed Relevance
With Russian attention focused on Ukraine, a Chechnya that threatens to erupt once again into violence, and the Islamic State to the south, Georgia has once again figured into US and NATO security calculus. But, will Tbilisi successfully exact defense aid and guarantees from the West this time around?
Charlie Goes to Chechnya: Moves and Countermoves
Following attacks in Grozny late last year, the Chechen republic’s leader has strongly opposed any Islamic militantism in the region, while the attacks on Charlie Hebdo and following world reactions has been met with an official outpouring of criticism for the cultural mindset that precipitated the attacks.
Terrorism and Counterterrorism after Charlie: Moves and Countermoves
In the wake of terrorist attacks in Paris, the over one million strong unity march accompanied displays of unity and cooperation internationally. Russia’s desire to engage positively on this issue accompanies a growing desire in Europe to normalize relations with Russia.
Prepping: Polish Defense Modernization
Poland’s new-found fear of its Russian neighbors following the annexation of Crimea and the ongoing troubles in eastern Ukraine is not without merit; rather than depend solely on questionable allies in the West, Warsaw is rapidly seeking to modernize its military into Central Europe’s premier force.
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